Dave Mundy is one of the interesting selections for the 2015 Brownlow Medal. We have heard his name pop up many times in different circles and he could be a good outside bet.
He is currently quoted at $51.00 on fixed odds betting, but they is way overs if you ask us. The mere fact he finished equal third on the Phantom Brownlow with 23 votes suggests the media rated him very highly this year.
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But first let us cast our eyes back to the 2013 Brownlow Medal. Joel Selwood was the red hot favourite at $2.00, kind of like Nat Fyfe this year. As the count went on, Selwood did not poll as predicted and his teammate Steve Johnson kept getting votes where Selwood should have.
In the end Selwood lost by 1 vote to Gary Ablett, while Steve Johnson polled 25 votes, stealing quote a lot of votes from Selwood. Could that same thing happen this year? Where Mundy is the Johnson and Fyfe is the Selwood?
It is possible. Mundy started well before a quiet patch in the middle of the year. Then he absolutely steamrolled home and could poll 18 votes alone over the final nine games. Let's take a closer look into his season now shall we?
Why Mundy can win the Brownlow Medal
David Mundy has had a good season, there is no denying that. He has really lifted his profile and Brownlow Medal polling rate in recent years.
Over the first seven years of his career he polled just 10 votes, however since 2012 he has polled in 16 of 61 matches (26.2%) for a total of 41 votes. That should rise again this year, especially given his hot run to end the year.
He also ranked #12 in the league for average contested disposals (13.14), #15 for average effective disposals (19.73) and #20 for average disposals (26.86). In other words, he has lots of the ball and uses it well. He ranked #9 for average clearances (7.14) as well, another key stat.
- Since 2012 has polled in 16 of 61 matches (26.2%) for 41 votes
- Absolutely storms home with possibly 18 votes from the final 9 games
- #9 in the league for average clearances (7.14 per game)
- #12 in the league for average contested disposals (13.14 per game)
- #15 in the league for average effective disposals (19.73 per game)
- #20 in the league for average disposals (26.86 per game)
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Why Mundy can't win the Brownlow Medal
It is going to be a tough ask for David Mundy to even win the Fremantle most votes count, let alone the Brownlow Medal outright. Going up against Nat Fyfe is like a David vs Goliath battle. Then of course there is Lachie Neale and Stephen Hill regularly amongst the votes too, so competition is fierce.
Then of course there is that quiet patch between Round 6 to Round 13. We don't have Mundy polling a single vote during that period, so with Fyfe possibly out to a huge lead at the half way point, it will be a large buffer to close.
His previous record is a bit of a worry. He is clearly trending up in recent years, but the past three years has seen him poll at just 26% and if he doesn't break out of that, then polling enough votes will be tough.
- Fierce competition for votes with Nat Fyfe, Lachie Neale and Stephen Hill
- His highest return is 16 votes (2013) so he needs to improve significantly
- He went missing between Round 6 to Round 13 and unlikely to poll
- Missed the final game being rested by coach Ross Lyon. This could hurt him
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The Final Word
It is pretty tough to see David Mundy taking home the Brownlow Medal. Fighting for votes with Nat Fyfe will be very tough, but it could also work to his advantage if you use the Selwood/Johnson scenario above.
If Mundy polls a few votes where Fyfe is expected to poll, then he will close the gap very quickly. His profile has become much bigger and he stands out more to the umpires now with the effective way he uses the ball and how hard he works, so there are certainly worse bets than Mundy.
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